RE: [Biochar] Learning curve slope for biochar

From: main@Biochar.groups.io <main@Biochar.groups.io&gt;
On Behalf Of Ron Larson via groups.io

Sent: Wednesday, July 19, 2023 11:26 PM

To: Rick Wilson <rick012@yahoo.com&gt;

Cc: Biochar.groups.io <main@Biochar.groups.io&gt;; nando@carbonzero.ch

Subject: Re: [Biochar] Learning curve slope for biochar

On Jul 19, 2023, at 9:58 PM, Rick Wilson <rick012@yahoo.com> wrote:

 

Ron, 

 

I agree with your view that biochar from biomass power certainly has a place.  Particularly if the feedstock comes from waste collection. 

And if the heat is needed for industrial purposes, which apparently is what is driving adoption in Europe. 

[RWL2:  Industrial AND any other thermal need

 

Do you, or anyone, have any idea of what the capital costs are of collecting reinfection ash from biomass power plants are so that it can be loaded into trucks?

[RWL3:  Assume this is reinjection (j not f).  Maybe available from Josiah Hunt at Pacific Biochar.  Believe he is hauling biochar away only, but might know your topic also.

 

Rick

 

 

 

On Jul 19, 2023, at 12:26 PM, Ronal Larson <rongretlarson@comcast.net> wrote:

 

List, Rick, Nando

 

These two from Nando and Rick aren’t quite on learning curves, but are pertinent and valued.   Few comments below

 

On Jul 18, 2023, at 11:33 PM, Rick Wilson via groups.io <rick012=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

 

Nando,

 

To address the cost issue is we need aggregate multiple sources of value not just drawing the line around feedstock and product. We are at the point of needing commercial
innovation. 

 

In Europe apparently they can justify biochar production in the interest of energy generation.  And perhaps their interest in not being reliant on Russia has accelerated
the trend. 

 

Here in California USA, the waste management companies are paid a tipping fee to collect waste biomass, which in principal could be passed to a biochar producer (particularly
if they owned it).

Biochar production can collect a carbon credit.

 

If you can draw the boundaries of your business to include the farm, and by committing that farm to regenerative practices, there are additional incentives – payments that
you can receive. 

For instance, conservation easements. 

 

it’s ridiculous that CDR does not include biochar,  

[RWL1:   Rick – certainly would be ridiculous – but I have never seen any non-inclusion of biochar in CDR.  We are now sort of officially NOT part of Geoengineering.  But
I still see plenty of biochar mention on and from Geoengineering lists.

 

More below

 

What is missing are Entrepreneurs. People that are willing to risk their personal financial security to take the risks needed to fix this problem, those, when they emerge,
will be the heroes. 

As they say in Silicon Valley (as per Elizabeth Holmes advisor at Stanford), ideas are a dime a dozen.  We need those that act. Not just advocate!!

 

Rick

On Jul 15, 2023, at 2:42 AM, Nando Breiter via groups.io <nando=carbonzero.ch@groups.io> wrote:

 

Hi Ron, 

 

I think we need to be careful to distinguish the price point of char separated from a biomass power plant ash stream from char intentionally produced. 

[RWL2:   Nando, the low biochar price I mention below was a co-product from a biomass power plant.   Definitely not ash-related – was intentionally produced

My rationale is that biomass power plants will not be scalable, particularly competing against solar and wind,  but also from a lack of cheap, concentrated large-scale biomass
sources. 

[RWL3:  Nando,  I’m missing the connection.  I believe biomass power plants can be scaleable.  There are many out there and more can be re-activated if natural gas gets
appropriate taxation..    I agree they can’t compete with solar and wind in their markets, but all biomass plants are dispatchable, and solar and wind are not.  Biomass plants can compete today – for both baseload and peaking plants – where solar and wind
aren’t eligible

 

I agree there needs to be “large-scale biomass sources” – but those
can be generated.  Maybe essential – to help landowners whose cattle rearing is adding so much global warming from enteric methane release.  Huge amounts of cattle-raising-land are in trouble if carbon taxes are ever placed on methane release.  Improving land
due to manure can happen – but that won’t happen from cattle “burps”.  Savory and friends can avoid mentioning “enteric methane”, but the climate world (they are not part of) needs what you are asking for  “large-scale biomass sources”.

There may be other means of reducing biochar’s price point at large scale, but it doesn’t seem like biomass power generation is one of them. 

[RWL4:   I agree that “biomass power generation” doesn’t seem likely – but one of today’s lowest biochar prices is coming
that way (I think we are and can be lower with char-making cook-stoves).   One of the reasons is that low carbon clinker is a big cost problem.  

 

A very good topic to hear more about.

 

Ron

 

 

On Sat, 15 Jul 2023 at 03:55, Ron Larson <rongretlarson@comcast.net> wrote:

List:

        Today I received a biochar company periodic Newsletter, with what I consider an amazingly low biochar-per-yard price.  The company attributed this to having increased volume – no doubt, both correct and necessary.

        In 1973,  I began hearing this learning curve theory for photovoltaics, which in the following 45 or so years achieved the intended (constant dollar) factor of 100X price drop. (Closer now to a price change of 300 X  or more.)  That was accurately predicted
50 years ago!  The predicted and actual slopes over 50 years (still continuing in 2023)  for PV is/was 0.8.  The similar curve slope for wind was 0.9. both predicted 50 years ago – and achieved.

“   There must be a paper out there making an informed projection for biochar (I guess a slope of about 0.95).  But I have seen no data on actual biochar cost declines, nor even a prediction.  Lower predicted costs yes, but not the rationale for a predicted
rate of decline.  Not looking for a prediction by time – rather a prediction by cumulative sales..

        I am ready to carefully handle individual corporate data. I’ll keep everything confidential and report only my stab at whether this slope is close to my 0.95 prediction or more or less.  I am sure we won’t match PV’s 0.8 value.  But this new data today,
may indicate biochar looks closer to the historic price declines for wind.

        Such a value for biochar can be of big help to all interested in biochar.   I am pretty sure it will also be of value to any (anonymous or not) company reporting both their per yard cost and cumulative sales.  (This note being sent to today’s reporting
company via bcc – as this is not supposed to be a sales-oriented list.).

        Does anyone know of any individual or group doing this price history and projection work for biochar?   I’d be glad to let them take the lead.

Ron 

— 

CarbonZero

+41 76 303 4477 cell / WhatsApp / Signal (https://signal.org/)

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Nando Breiter

http://biochar.info

CarbonZero Sagl

Astano, Switzerland

 

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